class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # <p>Teaching Bayesian Statistics at the Undergraduate Level</p> Bayesian Foundations ## USCOTS workshop ### Miles Ott ### 2021-06-24 --- class: top ## Bayesian Foundations Chapters - Chapter 1. The Big (Bayesian) Picture - Chapter 2. Bayes' Rule - Chapter 3. The Beta-Binomial Bayesian Model - Chapter 4. Balance and Sequentiality - Chapter 5. Conjugate Families --- class: top ## By the end of this section students will be able to: - _Think_ like a Bayesian - Be comfortable with necessary _probability tools_ - Construct prior and likelihood and posterior models - _Simulate Bayesian models_ in R - Understand the _influence of the prior and data_ on the posterior - Recognize and use common _Conjugate Families_ --- class: top ## Thinking Like a Bayesian .center[<img src="img/pasta_bayes_diagram.png" style="width:865px;">] --- class: top ## Bechdel Test .center[<img src="img/bechdel_comic.jpg" style="width:665px; margin-top:20px; border: 3px solid whitesmoke; padding: 10px;">] --- class: top ## Bechdel Test Movie must have: - Two women - Who speak with each other - About something other than a man .right[<img src="img/bechdel.png" style="width:565px;">] --- class: top ## Building a Prior Distribution: Bechdel Test -- - What proportion of movies do you think pass the Bechdel test? (chat your answer) -- - How sure are you? Choose a range of reasonable values. (chat your answer) -- - __Breakout rooms__: <a href = "https://github.com/bayes-rules/uscots-2021/blob/main/R/01-foundations-activity.html">01-foundations.html</a> - Identify a Beta distribution to formalize your prior using functions from `bayesrules` package -- - Given some data visualize your prior, likelihood, and posterior -- - Investigate the influence of different prior choices on your posterior